See pick up in growth from Q3′09: Nomura
After declining continuously for four quarters, Nomura’s Composite Leading index rose for the first quarter of 2009. This index is used to identify the turning points in the the growth cycle. So, is the Indian economy close to bottoming out?
Sonal Varma, Vice-President and India Economist at Nomura, said India is going through the worst quarter (Q2 2009) right now. However, she was quick to add that the index suggests some pickup, even though at a subdued level, from the third quarter of calendar year 2009 onwards. “For FY09 and FY10, we are looking at a GDP growth rate of about 6.4% and 5.3% respectively. The overall growth rate in FY10 will continue to be weak. The bright spots for FY10 really will be government spending as well as strong rural demand. But we will continue to see sluggishness in private investments. If the pickup in consumption is sustained then one can hope for some recovery in private investment in the coming quarters as well”